Ontario’s future stands at a pivotal crossroads as Premier Doug Ford secures a third consecutive majority in the Ontario provincial election. With the shadow of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs looming large, Ford’s victory signals a new era of political maneuvering for Canada’s most populous province. Here’s what this win means for Ontario’s economy, international trade relations, and the region’s long-term prospects.
In an election marked by heightened trade tensions with the United States, Ontario voters have re-elected Premier Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party), cementing his leadership for another four years. Ford’s overwhelming victory comes at a critical moment, as the province faces unprecedented challenges tied to the looming threat of U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump.
Ford’s strategic decision to call an early election — one year ahead of schedule — was a deliberate attempt to secure a stronger mandate to protect Ontario from the economic storm he anticipates under Trump’s tariff policies. Ford, who styled himself as a champion of Canada’s sovereignty, argued that his leadership was essential in navigating potential economic chaos driven by Trump’s unpredictable trade measures.
With at least 74 seats in the 124-member Legislative Assembly of Ontario, Ford’s victory gives him a solid foundation to continue his fight for Ontario’s economic independence. His vocal opposition to Trump’s tariffs became a central theme of his campaign, and Ford wasted no time in positioning himself as a staunch defender of Ontario’s economy on the global stage.
“I’ll fight tooth and nail against Donald Trump. I’ll promise you that,” Ford declared after his win, vowing to protect Ontario’s businesses, jobs, and families from the impact of U.S. trade policies.
Ontario, home to nearly 40 percent of Canada’s population, is one of the country’s most economically important provinces. Its deep ties with the U.S. economy make it highly vulnerable to external pressures. In 2023, over 80 percent of Ontario’s exports were directed to the United States, underscoring the province’s reliance on American consumers and industries.
Ford’s approach to the election was shaped by these concerns. With the looming threat of Trump’s tariffs, Ford sought to rally Ontarians around the idea that the province’s economic survival required a strong, assertive leader. His decision to campaign aggressively against Trump’s policies — including his proposal to impose a tariff on electricity exports to the U.S. — underscored the intensity of the political and economic battle that lies ahead.
Ontario’s automotive industry, one of the world’s largest, is particularly susceptible to tariff-driven disruptions. The province’s factories produce vehicles for major companies like Honda, Toyota, Ford, and General Motors. Any significant trade barriers could disrupt the flow of goods and jobs in a sector that is critical to Ontario’s economy.
While the automotive sector remains a backbone of Ontario’s economy, the province is also home to one of North America’s largest and most dynamic tech industries. With 420,000 employees and over 22,000 businesses driving innovation in the sector, Ontario’s tech industry stands as a pillar of resilience. As Ford continues to champion Ontario’s technological growth, the province’s future may lie in harnessing its burgeoning innovation ecosystem to offset the effects of any trade setbacks.
However, Trump’s trade war threatens to undermine these gains. On the eve of the Ontario election, Trump reaffirmed his decision to impose a 25-percent tariff on Canadian goods starting March 4, 2025, citing concerns over the illicit flow of fentanyl and other drugs across the U.S.-Canada border. The uncertainty surrounding these trade measures only heightens the need for strong leadership in Ontario, a responsibility that Ford has now solidified with this election win.
With Ford at the helm for another four years, Ontario’s future hinges on how effectively the province can weather the storm of U.S. tariffs while capitalizing on its strengths in technology and innovation. Ford’s vocal commitment to “fighting tooth and nail” against Trump is a testament to his determination to protect Ontario’s economic interests, but only time will tell if this approach will deliver lasting results.
For global entrepreneurs, tech enthusiasts, and anyone following the delicate balance between trade policy and economic growth, Ontario’s story will continue to unfold in the months and years to come. The outcome of this election could serve as a powerful case study for other regions grappling with similar trade dynamics.
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