As diplomatic efforts intensify to hold a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, policy analysts and Middle East experts are warning that the truce may collapse unless the United States commits to halting offensive military support and airstrikes in the region.
The warning comes amid growing global pressure to end hostilities, with humanitarian groups calling for an extended pause in fighting and a long-term political solution. However, the sustainability of the ceasefire remains in doubt, as trust between the warring parties continues to deteriorate and external actors, particularly the U.S., play a decisive role in shaping regional dynamics.
The ceasefire, brokered with support from Qatar, Egypt, and the United Nations, has offered a brief respite from weeks of intense fighting that resulted in hundreds of civilian casualties and massive infrastructure damage in Gaza. However, experts warn that without a firm commitment from the United States to suspend military actions or intelligence-backed operations, the truce may not hold.
Middle East policy analyst Dr. Amina Soltan of the Carnegie Endowment said, “If the U.S. continues to provide strategic support and does not clearly signal an end to unilateral strikes, both sides will remain on high alert. This creates a ticking clock situation, not a peace framework.”
The Biden administration has publicly supported a ceasefire and reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s right to defend itself. However, critics argue that the continued supply of precision weaponry, intelligence support, and military aid undercuts ceasefire efforts, sending mixed signals to both regional allies and adversaries.
According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, U.S. credibility as a peace broker depends on its willingness to impose limits on military engagement, at least while ceasefire negotiations are underway. “Washington cannot be both the firefighter and the arsonist,” the report warned.
Calls are growing within the U.S. Congress for President Biden to re-evaluate arms transfers and adopt a more balanced approach that centers de-escalation and human rights.
The ceasefire has allowed humanitarian agencies to deliver aid, restore water and electricity infrastructure, and begin medical evacuations in Gaza. But with reconstruction still uncertain and trust eroded, NGOs and rights groups emphasize that lasting peace requires more than temporary silence.
International Red Cross spokesperson Laila Habbani noted, “Every time a ceasefire is broken, the humanitarian cost multiplies. We need political accountability and clear commitments from major powers, including the U.S.”
To sustain the ceasefire and prevent another spiral of violence, foreign policy experts suggest a three-pronged approach: a U.S. freeze on airstrikes and offensive support during negotiations, pressure on both parties to return to a political process, and international guarantees for civilians’ safety.
While some progress has been made behind the scenes, trust remains minimal. In the absence of visible restraint from the U.S., analysts warn that one provocative move real or perceived could trigger renewed conflict.
As it stands, the current truce may be more of a pause than a permanent peace. Without a definitive U.S. commitment to halt airstrikes and restrain regional escalation, the ceasefire risks unraveling.
For now, the world watches and waits, but for millions in the region, peace still feels dangerously temporary.